The Osama Bump

Andrew Sullivan —  May 2 2011 @ 9:12am

Nate Silver considers the electoral implications of bin Laden's death. He cautions:

Yes, this is going to help Mr. Obama — to some degree or another — in November 2012. And yes, it’s also going to make Mr. Obama look much more formidable in the near-term. But I’m not sure that the magnitude of the bump that Mr. Obama might get in the Gallup tracking poll is going to be especially predictive of how much the residue of this news might produce for him 19 months from now.