“I Don’t See How Obama Can Lose”

by Zack Beauchamp

So sayeth Allan Lichtman, whose "keys to the presidency" approach has successfully called every race since 1984. Samuel Staley, writing in NRO, came to a similar conclusion about a month ago using Lichtman's formula:

New poll results showing disapproval of the way President Obama is handling the debt crisis might give his critics a boost, but they’re unlikely to change the dynamics of the presidential election one year from now. Right now, it looks like we are looking at another four years of Barack Obama as president. That might be hard to stomach, but if we look objectively at the factors that drive presidential election results, President Obama is not just sitting on the bubble. He’ll likely win in 2012, although not by a landslide.

Staley, feeling the need to defend his conservative credentials after that paragraph, follows up here. Kevin Drum quibbles a bit, but ultimately defers to Lichtman.