Is Romney Lucky?

Oct 6 2011 @ 3:42pm

The state of the race:


Ezra can't believe Romney's lucky streak. Nor can Wiegel:

Romney has benefitted all year from remaining un-flashy and un-frontrunnerish as the media has flitted from Trump to Bachmann to Perry to Christie. This is actually Romney's ideal situation, with underfunded niche candidates fighting for the conservative vote, and his best-funded credible opponent cratering but still taking double digits.

Jonathan Bernstein refuses to tribute Romney's staying power to luck:

I still have no particular view of whether Romney or Perry will wind up the nominee. I do think that the current tendency to write off Perry is silly; he remains just as viable today as ever, and given Romney's still very real vulnerabilities, three's no reason (based at least on what's been reported) to think that the battle is close to done. And of course Romney is lucky that John McCain didn't elevate someone with his VP pick in '08 who would have known how to capitalize on it. But overall, Romney is where he is because he's run a very good campaign so far. In my experience, that's not luck.