James Traub is cautiously optimistic:
[T]he fear that sectarian violence will rise to the level of civil war has subsided as Iraq's own security forces have improved. It is widely recognized that, as a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies concludes, "Iraq's military has the ability to contain internal violence with limited help from" the United States. Iraq's political institutions have also matured, if haltingly. As Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution recently wrote, Iraq's "young democracy has been characterized by a good deal of political brinksmanship to date, but in general they have pulled back from the brink so far."
Matt Eckel looks to Iraqi demographics for some basis for speculation. Exum rounds up and evaluates three straggler arguments as to whether this future had to be American troop-free. For my part, no one ever lost any money predicting doom and chaos in Iraq. None of the core issues were resolved in the face-saving exit strategy called "the surge." They will be going forward.
