The Makings Of A Ron Paul Upset?

Andrew Sullivan —  Dec 13 2011 @ 3:20pm

PPP's latest poll puts Paul second in Iowa, behind Gingrich by a single point:

Paul's supporters are considerably more committed to him than Gingrich's are.  77% of current Paul voters say they're definitely going to vote for him, compared to only 54% for Gingrich.  Romney has much more solid support than Gingrich as well, 67% of his voters saying they're with him for the long haul. Among only voters who say their mind's totally made up, 29% support Paul to 21% for Gingrich, 18% for Romney, and 11% for Bachmann.

Doug Mataconis wonders if Paul is about to get his turn in the spotlight:

Right now… it looks like some of the attacks on Gingrich are having an impact while Paul seems to be the one benefiting from them. Romney, on the other hand, is pretty much stuck where he’s been for a month or more. The one piece of good news for Gingrich here is that its better to have the numbers dipping three weeks out than one week out. We’ve got another debate coming Thursday, then we head into the holidays. If this trend continues, get ready to see a lot more Ron Paul coverage between now and January 3rd.

Mark Blumenthal considers on-the-ground organization in Iowa:

[Peter Giangreco, a Democratic strategist] says the "secret sauce" of traditional field organization was the ability to provide voters with information about how and where to participate that was otherwise hard to find. The advent of the internet and social media makes it "pretty easy to go find the information now about how to participate and where to go." It also makes it easier for campaigns to push that information out to their supporters.

Those changes can help Gingrich, Giangreco adds, but they may aid Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) even more. Paul could "change the math," he says, like Barack Obama, who turned out thousands of younger and independent voters to participate in their first caucus. "Paul is going to bring [out] people who are on nobody's list."