The Anti-Incumbent Election

Dec 23 2011 @ 10:38am

Alan I. Abramowitz says it's a myth:

When one party suffers a large number of incumbent defeats, the opposing party typically loses very few incumbents. Thus, there were eight elections between 1954 and 2010 in which at least 10 Democratic House incumbents were defeated. In those eight elections, 219 Democratic incumbents lost their seats. In those same elections, however, only 24 Republican incumbents lost their seats. Similarly, there were eight elections between 1954 and 2010 in which at least 10 Republican House incumbents were defeated. In those eight elections, 204 Republican incumbents lost their seats. In those same elections, however, only 19 Democratic incumbents lost their seats.