How Does Romney Lose?

Dec 26 2011 @ 10:37am

Nate Silver thinks the Republican race needs to remain divided in order for Ron Paul to play spoiler:

As the “third wheel” in a Romney-Perry or Romney-Gingrich race … Mr. Paul would potentially have more influence. I do not personally see a path wherein Mr. Paul wins a majority of delegates, but he could certainly control a substantial enough minority to become a power broker at the Republican National Convention, something that is an explicit goal of his campaign.

Jonathan Bernstein thinks Romney is sitting pretty. So does Eli Lehrer:

Nearly every part of the Republican primary process and, indeed, the party’s overall structure gives a massive advantage to people who have run before. The lack of super-delegates (ex officio convention delegates), for example, means that simply becoming well-known in the national media and among national figures conveys much less advantage than it does in Democratic contests. Republicans’ relatively greater reliance on low-dollar direct mail donations, likewise, means that having a well-tested list from a previous run for office conveys a fundraising advantage. Even the structure of grass roots groups on the Right conveys an advantage to those who have run before: the single greatest source of on-the-ground manpower on the Left, unions, are national organizations with top-down structures while the churches, community organizations, and tax reform groups important on the right are rarely centralized. And some right-of-center groups that have central structures–Americans for Prosperity, for example–don’t directly engage in electoral politics.