Is 2012 The End Of The Euro?

Andrew Sullivan —  Jan 3 2012 @ 1:44pm

I thought all the financial experts told us it would be done for by now. But Dave Betz makes one more bold prediction:

The Euro will not survive. It is manifestly untenable. The can cannot be kicked further down the road. The next time it is tried the foot will break before the can goes anywhere. The political shenanigans of European leaders to stave off the implosion are just that: shenanigans. European economies will tank hard this year  and there will be considerable social unrest as a result. The best that can be said is that the residuum of wealth, low-cost security, and cheap opiates will probably see us through the worst of it until the Baby Boomers have largely died off. The life prospects of today’s under 10s are probably pretty good, the over 40s will be OK too, but everybody in between is going to get hammered. Domestic security will be preoccupied with preventing these righteously pissed-off people from breaking too much stuff.

Joshua Goldstein counters:

The euro zone will not collapse, and the European Union will not fall apart. It’s been a rough stretch, alright, but the EU will always do the minimum to hold itself together. If anything, the current euro crisis will lead to a deepening of integration in Europe, at least among the euro members, as the common currency forces fiscal congruency among the member states. I would bet on the EU to succeed. Europe’s collective unconscious remembers what came for centuries before the EU, and nobody wants to return there.

Kenan Malik sees the Euro making it through the year, but not much longer. I have to say I was a little gobsmacked by the interest now paid by Italy. It's half what it was a couple of months ago. I guess the new round of borrowing in the new year will be the real test.