Kevin Drum believes Obama's reelection is anything but certain:
As near as I can tell, it's nearly unanimous conventional wisdom that this is going to be a very close race despite the fact that the Republican field is weak. Hell, Intrade has only intermittently put Obama's chances over 60% for the past year, and he's barely been better than an even bet for the past six months.
Jonathan Bernstein thinks it's too early to tell because the economy could improve or deteriorate:
[S]aying the chances are 50/50 now isn't at all the same thing as saying that it will therefore be a close race in November. From the point of view of observers, that means that we really don't know yet whether the election will be close enough that electioneering (including the strengths and weaknesses of the out-party nominee) will be important to the outcome.
For my part, I don't know. But what I've done is collect my thoughts on why Obama should be re-elected. Handsomely. The essay will be in next week's Newsweek.