Assad Is On The Way Out?


Mark Lynch provides reasons to think so:

Western officials constantly say that Asad's days are numbered.  Many well-informed observers, including those who have spent time recently inside Syria, seem to agree.  The economy is deeply struggling under sanctions and the effects of internal conflict, peaceful protests and armed attacks are escalating across the country, and Syria is increasingly isolated internationally.

Dan Drezner and Marc Tracy compile supporting evidence. Ehsani, fresh from a visit to the embattled country, isn't so sure:

[E]very Syrian who is in the military or who has served there in the past seemed to believe that it will be “years” before the regime is weakened enough to lose. This sentiment was shared by even those in the opposition that I spoke to. Syrians inside the country seem to be well aware of the might of the Syrian army and the security services. Perhaps this is why the hardcore elements of the opposition are pleading for foreign intervention. I think that it is highly unlikely that the regime will lose to the opposition without some form of foreign intervention and/or the Russians turning their back. Neither appears to be on the horizon.

Gershom Gorenberg games out the political consequences of an Assad collapse. In case you need to catch up on coverage of the Syrian crisis, Hamed Aleaziz provides a concise primer.

(Cartoon via The Revolting Syrian)