Watch for Paul to exceed expectations on Saturday (he took second in 2008). Weigel reports

[In 2008] Paul's campaign organization marshalled around twice as many votes as the polls said it could. He's far stronger this time. One example is the Elko County Republican Party, currently run by Marla Criss, who was a frustrated Paul delegate in 2008 (at the state convention, they were blocked from winning the right to go to St. Paul), dusted herself off, and led a takeover of the local organization. "In 2008 we had candidates coming through here all the time," she said. This time, only Ron Paul and Mitt Romney had scheduled Elko visits before the caucuses. According to Jennifer Hobbs, the local party secretary, the only visible presences in the area were Paul's and Romney's. … [I]f you're organized in Elko, you're organized everywhere. Paul has an advantage that won't show up in polls.