Could Mitt Fall Short Of 1,144?

Feb 9 2012 @ 12:18pm

by Maisie Allison

Philip Klein does some preliminary delegate math: 

It is conceivable to craft the following general scenario: Romney wins states in the west and northeast, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum combine to dominate the south, Midwest and Appalachia, and Ron Paul siphons off a chunk of delegates. If such a scenario plays out, it’s possible to see how Romney could have problems getting over the top, even if analysts are broadly correct that his money and organization give him the edge. Just to provide a sense of how this could happen, I spent some time playing around with CNN’s delegate calculator feature and divided the states up two categories. … [I]f Romney were to win all of the delegates in all of the states that I identified as solid or lean states, it would only get him to 1,008 delegates, according to the CNN calculator — still short of the required 1,144.

Even if Romney were to fall short, Alex Massie believes that Super Delegates would give Romney the win.