Is Santorum More Electable? Ctd

Feb 16 2012 @ 2:17pm

Not with surrogates like this:

Nate Silver isn't sure Romney would be better in the general election:

Obama would be a 77 percent favorite to win the popular vote against Santorum given 2.5 percent G.D.P. growth. Republicans wouldn’t care about that, however, if Santorum carried Ohio and Michigan — and perhaps even his home state, Pennsylvania — places where economic concerns tend to take precedence. Under these conditions, in fact, Republicans might be able to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

He gives Obama a 60 percent chance at reelection overall. In a later post, Silver takes another look at Romney's electability:

The point is simply that this is a debatable case — more so, say, than a comparison of Mr. Romney and Newt Gingrich might be. Also, a party is within its rights to consider factors above and beyond electability. A small additional chance of losing the general election to Mr. Obama might be deemed an acceptable risk if Republicans think Mr. Santorum would be more reliably conservative once in office.