The New Kremlinology

Andrew Sullivan —  Feb 20 2012 @ 2:20pm

What is Israel thinking?

Chatting around in London, and asking anyone I could find who might have a clue, I came away even more confused by the questions behind Israel's alleged plans to attack Iran's alleged nuclear bomb facilities. Which of the following possible scenarios seems truer after reading this story in the NYT today?

The decision has already been made; maybe April; maybe close to the US conventions. Israel alone.

It'll be another Suez. Obama will be Eisenhower. That message is currently being conveyed at all levels from Washington to Jerusalem.

It's more Israeli sabre-rattling, to help the sanctions, not hurt them.

Israel knows it can't do this alone and is using the NYT to rally pressure on Obama to agree to do it himself.

Israel is doing this precisely to give Obama cover for a strike he realizes is now inevitable.

Those five scenarios are listed in the Urtak survey embedded above. By replying Yes, No or Don't Care, indicate which scenario you think is likely. (You can answer Yes to more than one.) Ever since the smashing success of our Dish demographic survey, we have been meaning to integrate the Urtak app in various new ways. So give it a try – it will only take about 30 seconds.