Can Santorum Still Win?

Mar 9 2012 @ 11:20am

Better_Than_Baseline

Nate Silver runs through various scenarios. Even in the scenario pictured above, where Santorum runs ten points better than his baseline numbers, he would fall short of a delegate majority:

Mr. Santorum’s path to the nomination probably involves generating some real momentum by sweeping just about everything in March — other than perhaps Puerto Rico, Hawaii, and the territorial caucuses. If he won Illinois on March 20, for instance, and then followed it up with an April 3 result in which he won Wisconsin clearly and if Maryland was close, that’s about the point in which Mr. Romney would be in extreme danger. It’s not impossible, but Mr. Santorum has a very high bar to clear.