Why The Polling Shift?

Mar 13 2012 @ 12:11pm

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Obama's sudden dip is mystifying some. Chait proffers this as an explanation:

The jobs report reflected good news, of course. But this may actually be the problem for Obama. A Democracy Corps survey from last month tested elements of Obama’s State of the Union address. The whole thing fared extremely well, except for one bit, where Obama boasted that “America is back.” Democracy Corps found: "Claiming that “America is back” is by far the weakest operative message and produces disastrous results.  It is weaker than even the weakest Republican message and is 10 points weaker in intensity than either Republican message."

I just don't think voters really absorb one day's television news clip as emphatically as Jon thinks they might. Israel? I don't think that issue moves approval ratings like that, especially given the massive fawning Netanyahu got last week. Gas prices seem much more plausible an explanation. Or maybe the gas prices and the message that "America is back." Mickey wants to believe it's the contraception/religious freedom debate, but Allahpundit rightly notes that the gender gap hasn't budged much at all, and that poll wording can change a lot.

All I can say is that, whether this is a blip or related to something real, we live in a country where Obama polls just a few points higher than Rick Santorum as a potential president.