The price of gasoline bears very little relationship to U.S. oil production, for the simple reason that U.S. oil production is a small fraction of the world’s total. See any relationship? Me neither.
Michael Klare doesn't expect prices to come down any time soon:
The simple truth of the matter is this: most of the world’s easy reserves have already been depleted — except for those in war-torn countries like Iraq. Virtually all of the oil that’s left is contained in harder-to-reach, tougher reserves. These include deep-offshore oil, Arctic oil, and shale oil, along with Canadian “oil sands” — which are not composed of oil at all, but of mud, sand, and tar-like bitumen. So-called unconventional reserves of these types can be exploited, but often at a staggering price, not just in dollars but also in damage to the environment.