“The Race Is Over”

Andrew Sullivan —  Mar 20 2012 @ 12:41pm


Silver expects a Romney victory today:

Illinois had appeared to offer Mr. Santorum a chance at a breakthrough. Instead, unless the polls are very wrong, it may represent a breakthrough of sorts for Mr. Romney – by far his biggest delegate grab and margin of victory in a Midwestern state so far.

Well, it's worth remembering that Santorum tends to outperform his polling – but this time, the gap seems too large, and PPP and Rasmussen are aligned. Cassidy looks ahead:

Once Louisiana is out of the way, the primary timetable becomes more favorable to Romney. On April 3, there are votes in Maryland, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia. Santorum will be hoping to win the first two states, although he’s far from a sure thing in either place. In D.C., he’s not even on the ballot. Then there is a three week break before the primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. If Romney could sweep the Northeast except for Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania, he would be looking very good.

Alex Massie calls it:

This race is over. Readers know this and so do journalists. There's just a reluctance to admit that it's over while there's any speck of hope it might not be. Primary season is a habit it's tough to break but at some point you gotta do it and admit that all the fancy ploys and plots spun to keep it going are so much hokum in a season already amply supplied with the stuff.

(Illinois projection from 538)