Would An Obamacare Defeat Help The Democrats?

Andrew Sullivan —  Mar 26 2012 @ 1:20pm

That's Aaron Blake's suggestion

Republicans already hate the law, and if it gets struck down, there’s nothing to unite against. Obama may pay a price from his political capital for enacting a law that is eventually declared unconstitutional, but all of a sudden, the bogeyman disappears, and the GOP loses one of its top rallying cries. The Democratic base, meanwhile, would be incensed at the Supreme Court, which has generally tilted 5-to-4 in favor of conservatives on contentious issues, and could redouble its efforts to reelect Obama so that he could fill whatever Supreme Court vacancies may arise.

Ezra Klein makes a related argument. Will Wilkinson counters:

This sort of thinking is so wishful it's almost touching. Of course, one can always argue that even if Team Them wins, their policies are so boneheaded they will inevitably fail and therefore lead the public to demand the smart policies of Team Us. Perhaps it is so in this case. But the history of health-care policy in this country is a history of path-dependency and the accumulation of kludges. Team Us is most likely to capitalise on the failures of Team Them by adding new failures of their own. And vice versa.