Gary Sick freaks out about the economic consequences of war with Iran:
One might expect disruptions in oil delivery and loading in Arab ports up and down the Gulf, some because of sabotage but others from cyberattacks on the control systems. Iran would attribute these to “the hand of God,” but the more pragmatic effect would be a very substantial portion of the world’s oil suddenly removed from world supply. If sustained over more than a few weeks, the scramble to replace large volumes of Persian Gulf and Caspian oil would drive up the price of oil, and gasoline, to unprecedented heights. That would constitute a huge tax on the world’s economies, just at the moment when they were showing signs of recovery from the Great Recession.
Relatedly, Brad Plumer wonders how much sanctions intended to slow Iran's oil output will drive up oil prices:
From Iran’s perspective, the biggest calculation to make is whether the drop in exports will hurt more than the benefit the country is experiencing from rising oil prices as tensions flare. A March poll of oil traders, conducted by Reuters, found that Iran could see its oil revenues cut in half, by $50 billion, if exports fall to 1.5 million barrels a day and it has to sell some of its oil at a discount. But that’s assuming that oil averages roughly $115 per barrel through the year — lower than its current price.