Gallup's initial tracking poll finds Romney ahead by two points. Joyner is cautious:

I’m not at all confident that Romney has moved into the lead; indeed, I think Obama has the inside track to keeping his job and have thought that even before the economy started to improve and Romney reminded me how wooden he is as a campaigner. But it’s sure looking like we’ll return to the very tight races that we saw in 2000 and 2004 rather than the perfect storm of last cycle.

Jonathan Bernstein, who notes a new CNN poll showing Obama ahead by 9, warns that statistical noise can create odd results:

[W]e're going to get some poll that says that African-Americans in the south are suddenly swinging away from Obama, or that LDS members in the West have suddenly tilted away from Romney, and everyone is going to freak out until it eventually turns out that it was just a fluke of one poll.