Can Obama Win Arizona?

Tomasky rightly fears overconfidence among the Obamaites. But Arizona is not an impossible target:

If McCain wasn’t from Arizona and Obama had competed in 2008, Obama probably would have won the state by a meaningful margin. The Obama campaign would have registered thousands of new non-white and young voters, and Arizona would probably be widely regarded as a critical swing state in 2012.

But Obama didn’t compete in Arizona, and now the Obama campaign is attempting to create the increased non-white registration and turnout necessary to sway the state with presumably less white support. Whether the Obama campaign can do so is questionable, but given their success in 2008 and the sheer number of unregistered young and non-white voters, it would not be wise to dismiss their chances.