While there are many conflicting trends, in the aggregate, non-white participation and support for Obama should remain similar to 2008. Substantial declines in turnout seem relatively unlikely, and long-term demographic trends are probably sufficient to mitigate, if not overwhelm, any decrease in participation rates. Although it is impossible to precisely estimate the composition of the electorate one week before an election, let alone seven months, it is highly unlikely that non-white turnout will revert to anything reminiscent of 2004, and there is a good chance that non-white turnout will match or exceed 2008 levels.
(Photo: A supporter cries as she listens to US President Barack Obama address a campaign event at the University of Illinois at Chicago in Chicago, Illinois, on January 11, 2012. By Jewel Samad /AFP/Getty Images)