Arizona And Obama

Andrew Sullivan —  Apr 23 2012 @ 7:48pm

The Obamaites, I assumed, were getting into Romney's head by recently telling the press that Arizona might be in play this fall. But maybe they're not so delusional:

According to the poll of 488 registered voters, 42 percent said they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, while 40 percent said they would support President Barack Obama and 18 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, if the election were held today the contest for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes would be a “toss up.”

No gender gap in Arizona, but a huge generational one, which is also in part a racial one. Arizona has the most racially polarized generation gap in the country – with a hugely white senior set and a hugely non-white kindergarten crowd. I suspect that the key to Obama's re-election will be as Bill Clinton has advised: making Romney own his right-wing extremism in the primaries, especially on immigration, where he went waaay out on a limb.