Very Early Tea Leaves

Andrew Sullivan —  Apr 26 2012 @ 10:53am

HuffPo's first attempt an an electoral map:


Blumenthal warns:

While this early Electoral College result will cheer Obama partisans, take it with a huge grain of salt. The polls driving the estimates for the battleground states are sparse, and all but a handful of the most recent surveys were fielded in the midst of the Republican primary contest, when the president enjoyed a bigger lead in national polling.

Sabato's map is more favorable to Romney:

Based on our analysis, Obama starts with a presumed base of 247 electoral votes, just 23 short of the magic number of 270 — but not all of them are truly secure. Romney starts with a much firmer but not ironclad 206. The election will be decided mainly in seven states with 85 toss-up votes.

Map after the jump: