A Static Campaign

Jun 13 2012 @ 11:17am

Screen shot 2012-06-13 at 11.39.54 AM

We are in the throes of panic or near-panic as Democrats realize how tough it is for an incumbent in these economic straits. And, for what it's worth, I obviously agree that so far, the campaign has been too negative about Romney, too positive about the economy, and without the critical argument about who is better to tackle the actual budget choices we face. But this is June. It's going to be a tight race throughout. The polling shows deep skepticism of both candidates' policies for the economy. Despite what you might hear, Nate Cohn finds little movement over the last month:

Why is the race so stable? For starters, the electorate is deeply polarized and there aren’t very many persuadable voters. Of course, many of those persuadable voters aren’t turned into the race. Most haven’t heard of Cory Booker, let alone care about his musings on Meet the Press. Obama’s comments about the state of the private sector may hurt him, but probably not until deployed aggressively by the Romney campaign.

The voters most likely to follow the intricacies of the race are also those most likely to have firmly made up their minds.