The Bain Of This Campaign, Ctd

Jul 5 2012 @ 2:50pm

Screen shot 2012-07-05 at 1.05.02 PM

With Ann Romney panicking, and Obama's narrow lead stabilizing, it looks as if the Bain attacks – now refreshed with accusations of out-sourcing – are working. One way of looking at this is examining a key swing state:

In Ohio, which is a must-win state for Romney, Obama’s hefty lead is based on his strong support among women, blacks, and independents. According to Quinnipiac, the gender gap is a stunning fifteen points. Among female voters, Obama leads Romney fifty per cent to thirty-five per cent. He is also doing a good job of attracting support from independents, where he leads by nine points. These are alarming figures for Romney. If he loses Ohio, the electoral-college math becomes forbidding. Obama’s support among Ohio women and independents is so strong that it almost makes up for his chronic weakness among white men, which has always been his biggest vulnerability. Among white voters of both sexes, he is now trailing Romney by just four points: forty-five per cent to forty-one per cent.

Which is where the Bain ads have come in handy:

Romney's favorability rating is thirty-two per cent, according to Quinnipiac, and his unfavorability rating is forty-six per cent. The Obama campaign believes that its negative ads about Bain Capital, which have running in Ohio and other states during recent weeks, are having the desired effect, and that might well be true. In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of voters in swing states, one in three of them said that seeing or hearing about Romney’s business record made them view him more negatively, and just one in six said that it made them take a more positive view of him.

All Obama needs to do is peel off a sliver of white working class votes from Romney and the path for the GOP to the White House gets much much harder.