So the Obama team has shot its wad. Its opponent has more ammo and more money now. Romney hasn’t been mortally wounded. And there isn’t money from Obama to keep up the 4-to-1 spending barrage. In fact without it, Obama might well have fallen behind in the race. So the Obama team pleads for money and turns up the volume of the attacks. (After calling Romney a criminal in July, what’s left for September and October?)
But all of this is obviously a warm-up for September. The current skirmish has made Romney's tax returns a real issue – see Bill Kristol demanding they be released in full – and established his responsibility for what happened at Bain throughout his entire tenure up to his sweetheart exit deal in 2002. Those are a foundation for future attacks, not the shooting of the presidential wad. If Jenn thinks the Bain attacks are going to be off the air in October, she's surely dreaming.
Then there's the actual data from the must-win state of Ohio:
Now look at simply the last month in Ohio:
Here's another crucial state, Virginia:
Jenn is right that these shifts are not dramatic, but neither are they non-existent. And they are the beginning, not the end.