The Latest Polls

Jul 19 2012 @ 12:32pm

As I noted last night, the data on the economy in both the NYT poll and others is very bad news for Obama. It reaffirms the wisdom of Romney's strategy to focus entirely on the economy and hope things get worse in the next few months, with the Congressional GOP denying Obama any new stimulus that might have helped. But the internals of the polls are all over the place. Obama's favorables are only 36 percent? Further analysis of the differences here. Nate Silver's conclusion is that nothing has really changed in the past month.

It seems clear to me that the race is tied. Its future dynamic will be between the Obama campaign's rather successful early effort to define Romney as an arrogant, tax-minimizing plutocrat and then link that definition to his policy proposals – and the economic data in the next few months.