Syria After Assad

Andrew Sullivan —  Jul 23 2012 @ 5:37pm

Marc Lynch urges preparation:

Today, we face the grim reality that the prospects for a negotiated transition have largely ended and Syria now likely faces a long, grinding insurgency with few foundations for a viable post-Assad scenario. Sadly, such an outcome of long-term violence would be acceptable to many whose primary interest is weakening Iran rather than protecting civilians or building a more democratic Syria. At this point, it is vital to prepare for an end which won't come soon, but when it happens will likely be sudden and surprising.

Fred Kaplan considers the implications for Israel:

Israelis do have this worry … If Syria tumbles into anarchy, if no new government can be formed, or if the new government isn’t strong enough to contain (or kick out) the smattering of jihadists who have crossed into the country to exploit the current chaos, the Golan Heights could turn into a festering wound of instability and a haven for terrorists, like southern Lebanon during its long civil war in the 1980s.