An Unchanging Election

Jul 25 2012 @ 1:52pm

Nate Silver calls the presidential race "incredibly steady":

We’ve now been running our presidential forecast model for almost two months, but very little has changed in our analysis of the race. Each day, we have shown Barack Obama as a modest favorite to win re-election. At no point has projected margin of victory in the popular vote been smaller than 1.7 percentage points, or larger than 2.7 percentage points; it was 2.3 percentage points as of Tuesday evening’s forecast.

But the electoral college predictor has been moving slowly in Obama's direction. Here's Silver's "Nowcast" for if the election were held today:

Screen shot 2012-07-25 at 1.44.33 PM
And yet we're constantly told that the national race will eventually impact the swing state tallies. Here's my rough take at this point before an Olympics lull and the conventions: Americans are largely indicating their support as place-holders. And the country is evenly divided. Once the conventions end, and the polling settles in mid-September, we'll have a much better idea of where we are. And if the Grexit happens in October, God knows what happens.