That's Rove's analysis of the race – but he concedes that in the last month, Obama has gained 58 Electoral College votes, while Romney has gained only 10. Obama has lost some support in solid blue states and Romney has gained some in the reddest ones – hence the close national race. But at this point, Romney has to win every single toss-up state and one other to win the Electoral College. That will take an avalanche of ads. And the billionaires and Rove himself will happily help.