Why Obama Is The Favorite

Andrew Sullivan —  Aug 9 2012 @ 11:31am

by Patrick Appel

A thorough examination of Romney's favorability problem:

Along the same lines, Nate Cohn explains why Obama currently has the upper-hand:

Contrary to conventional wisdom, history suggests that undecided voters are unlikely to uniformly flock toward the challenger: Candidates almost always finish above their share of the vote in summer polling. While there are examples of challengers sweeping undecided voters, as Reagan did in 1980, the “1980 or bust” position is hardly enviable. The economy is bad enough that the 1980 scenario can’t be discounted, but the differences between 1980 and 2012 are too great to count on it—especially given Romney’s astonishingly bad numbers among undecided voters.