No Ryan Bounce … Except In Wisconsin?

Andrew Sullivan —  Aug 21 2012 @ 6:57pm


Simon Jackman sees almost no movement since the veep announcement:

Using a tracking model and algorithm I've developed exclusively for Pollster, I estimate that Obama's share of national level voting intentions is virtually unchanged, ticking up from 46.2 percent on Friday, Aug. 10 (the day prior to the Ryan announcement) to 46.3 percent today, a mere 0.1 percentage point increase … Romney's numbers are off by the same amount, falling from 45.1 percent on Friday August 10 to 45 percent today.

But surprisingly, Wisconsin may be back in play. Two new polls show a real shift since the native son's arrival on the GOP ticket. Here's the least-smoothed latest polling graph:

Screen shot 2012-08-21 at 6.37.57 PM

So the candidate designed to nationalize the election is now a classic Electoral College asset. Nationally, the Romney campaign may regret picking someone who believes a zygote created by a rape has the full standing of a citizen and who co-sponsored a bill with Akin that qualified the word "rape" with the word "forcible".