Breaking Away?

Sep 6 2012 @ 12:31pm

Screen shot 2012-09-06 at 11.33.38 AM
Far too soon to judge, but this is Nate Silver's current November 6 projection for the electoral college. There's been more movement in the past two weeks than in the previous two months. And it's toward the president. Here's the Princeton Electoral Vote predicter over the last few weeks as well:

EV_history

Romney appears to have gotten a post-Ryan bounce, which has since been declining. Obama has been gaining since the middle of August, with a blip up during the Republican Convention.

My view has long been that if the election is a choice election and if Obama's record and proposals are presented well – as they were by Bill Clinton last night – he should win handily. Romney, in picking Ryan, had clearly decided a referendum on Obama's record wasn't going to be enough. And since the election became about the choice for the future, and as the details are filled in – or lack of them exposed – Obama has been gaining in the electoral college.

I know conventions are not as bouncy as they were. But for Romney not to have established any lead at all over Obama over the weekend and now strikes me as a bad sign for him. Still: give him a 2 point bump in every single state, and he suddenly gets very close in the Electoral College.