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The landscape is coming into focus. Romney announced a big swing-state ad-buy last night. Chait notices that no ads are going up in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania:

The eight states where Romney is competing add up to a neat 100 electoral votes, of which Romney needs 79 and Obama just 23. If you play with the electoral possibilities, you can see that this would mean Obama could win with Florida alone or Ohio plus a small state or Virginia plus a couple small states, and so on.

Unless I’m missing something badly here, Romney needs either a significant national shift his way — possibly from the debates or some other news event — or else to hope that his advertising advantage is potent enough to move the dial in almost every swing state in which he’s competing.

And the Gallup tracking poll suggests a post-convention break-out in Obama's job approval. It doesn't include the whole convention yet. But national approval of Obama is now at 52 percent, a real breakthrough – especially since Gallup has been leaning a little GOP much of this year. More striking: that's the highest approval rating for Obama since 2009.

I'd call it the Clinton bump. Let's see if it lasts.