Reality Check

Sep 14 2012 @ 4:50pm

I made a decision to assign victories to Romney in two toss-up states – Iowa and Virginia – on Princeton’s EV map. Then I threw in Nevada for Romney. Then Florida, where he is currently struggling. This is the electoral collage map that emerges at this point with current polling (apart from my GOP-beneficial assignments):

Screen shot 2012-09-14 at 2.13.40 PM

Obama still wins. Romney needs Ohio or Colorado or Iowa desperately. He is behind in all three by a few points. And if I were Obama, I’d keep Bill Clinton in Florida for as long as he is prepared to campaign there. Here’s the national race, with Rasmussen removed and sensitivity increased:

Obama is coming down from his bump, but Romney is in a free-fall. I’m not sure how this past week will turn that around.