Ad War Update: The Avalanche Was Just A Snowball

Over the weekend we featured two notable ads, one showcasing more sliminess from Rove's Super PAC, while the other, from the Obama campaign, issued a direct and powerful response to Romney's post-convention ad avalanche. Meanwhile, the Romney campaign is out with a flurry of new ads today, the most important of which is probably the following ad. It avoids mentioning Obama and instead lays out Mitt's five-point plan on the economy, which promises 12 million new jobs by the end of his first term (ad buy size/scope unknown):

And while last week Obama was "Failing American Workers", this week Romney alleges that the Obama administration's spending along with America's debt are "failing" families as well (ad buy size/scope unknown):

The campaign is after more support from women with this new debt and economy-centered ad – starring a baby (ad buy size/scope unknown):

Romney's people also put out a web video celebrating National Hispanic Heritage Month by having Mitt recite Hispanic achievements. In ad analysis, McKay Coppins zooms in on the Romney campaign's newest strategy: to make the race a "base election" under the assumption that "it will not be decided by elusive, much-targeted undecided voters — but by the motivated partisans of the Republican base". Following that plan, Romney would use the campaign trail to focus on generating enthusiasm among the core conservative voters while campaign and allied advertising would serve a separate purpose:

Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist and ad-man, said the case against Obama's record will be made on the airwaves by the campaign and outside Republican groups — and it no longer needs Romney as a daily spokesman. "On the outside, here's what going to happen: we're going to nuke Barack Obama into radioactive sludge in the swing states with 3000-4000 points of TV in September," Wilson said. "Crossroads and Restore [two Republican SuperPACs] will do the same. It's going to be hitting in concert with the terrible economic news, and it'll strike a chord."

But Scott Conroy looks into whether Team Romney's late push of ads might actually backfire:

[W]ith so much money targeting relatively few voters in key swing states, there is growing concern among Republicans that the advantage Romney is expected to have when those voters historically tune into the race may not be so significant after all. In other words, will the undecided simply tune out the increasingly inescapable noise from the late campaign ad barrage?

"We’re sort of in uncharted territory here," a senior Romney adviser said. "Regardless of a point of diminishing returns, we’re not going to be outspent by an incumbent president, and I think that’s important. At what point it becomes a tipping point, I don’t know, but we’re not going to be outspent like John McCain was, three to one, in 2008."

Speaking of the Democrats getting outspent, Joe Ricketts, the man accused of plotting [NYT] an anti-Obama ad starring Rev. Jeremiah Wright, is now the latest outside-spender to enter the race. Rickett's Super PAC, Ending Spending Action Fund, will sink $10 million in presidential ads and $2 million into down-ticket ads. Here is a overview of some of the disaffected, Obama-voter testimonials the group is using in their ads, which will being airing this week in at least four battleground states [WSJ]:

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is out with a few new web videos. Below is another testimonial from a Hispanic supporter, an immigrant who recently became a citizen (released in Spanish and English):

The campaign also put out a web video combating the charges by the GOP that Obama is fighting a war on religion, as well as one to challenge what they call Romney's "extreme makeover" with regards to Hispanic issues.

Ad War archive here.