Nate Silver notes that much of Obama's new buoyancy has come from non-swing-states, and that Colorado in particular looks weaker than it might. The upshot?
As of Monday, the forecast gave Mr. Obama a 76.1 percent chance of winning the popular vote, but a 74.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. In other words, as of right now, Mr. Obama is more likely to lose the Electoral College while winning the popular vote than the other way around.
Right now, Romney has only 9 percent chance of winning, according to Silver's model. In November, he puts the chances at 1 in 4.