Harry J Enten reviews polling on 2012 marriage equality initiatives:
Overall, the picture is rosy for same-sex marriage proponents. It looks likely that same-sex marriage is going to be approved at the ballot box for the first time, on a state-by-state basis. The only cautionary note I would add is that same-sex marriage opposition has performed 7 percentage points better at the ballot box in past years than polls have estimated. But this opposition "bonus" has been waning in recent years. In any case, same-sex marriage approval is ahead by enough points in Maine, Maryland and Washington that the bans would pass even if there is hidden opposition.
Given the context and the polling numbers, Enten seems to mean "wouldn't" rather than "would" in that last sentence.