“This Race Is No Toss-Up”

Sep 20 2012 @ 2:26pm

Harry Enten sizes up the race:

Simply put, there hasn’t been a single candidate to come back after trailing by 3 points this late in the campaign in the past 60 years. When I look at the current polling data and put it into this historical context, I just don’t see a Romney victory. It’s not that it can’t happen; it’s just that 3 points is a good lead in a race that has hasn’t shifted easily. Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama’s 3-point lead eventually shrank back to the pre-convention numbers that were so stable for so long. That would fit a historical pattern of tightening before an election. But this race is no toss-up: it now leans pretty hard in Obama’s direction.

Silver was more cautious yesterday:

[I]f Mr. Obama is having days like this in the polls a week from now, then Mr. Romney is either going to be banking on an exceptionally lopsided turnout, or some sort of October surprise. Either is a possibility, but not one you’d want to put a lot of money on.

The electoral college map is getting harder for Romney as well:

Screen shot 2012-09-20 at 2.14.26 PM