Above is Silver's "now-cast" of what would happen if the election were held today. It's a double-whammy, when you see the convention bounce, and then what could be a second "47 percent"/"Cairo opportunism" bump. Silver notes that the national tracking polls – using robocalls – show a closer race than others. But the swing state polling seems to back up the more traditional live interview format, where Obama's lead is clear and growing.
Last night, we saw NBC's poll give Obama 50 percent support in Colorado and Wisconsin among likely voters – with a lead over Romney of 5 points. In Iowa, Obama is ahead by a whopping eight points among likely voters. Here's a graph of the poll of polls on Romney's recent favorability numbers, starting in August, with heightened sensitivity to pick up small shifts:
He's edging 50 percent in unfavorable numbers – 3 percent more than the unfavorable opinion he has of 47 percent of Americans. The feeling, apparently, is mutual.