Obama Is Winning

Sep 24 2012 @ 11:39am

Nate Cohn analyzes the race:

While Obama’s 4-point lead is very modest by historic standard, it’s larger than it sounds. Only a sliver of voters are remain undecided and Obama holds approximately 49 percent of the vote, suggesting that Romney will need to fair exceptionally well among the remaining undecided voters and then further count on either low-Democratic turnout or Obama supporters switching sides. All of these scenarios are possible; none are likely.

Obama is a well-known incumbent president and voters have hardened impression of his performance, as demonstrated by the stability of the race and his resilience in states where he faced months of uncontested advertisements, like Michigan, Minnesota, or New Mexico. Battleground state voters have already heard a whole presidential campaign’s worth of advertisements, suggesting that a deluge of late spending is unlikely to change the outcome. The possibility of a late swing is further reduced by the rise of early voting, as nearly one-third of voters are expected to cast ballots before Election Day.

Silver watches the clock:

[W]e are now getting to the point where a neutral day in the polls can be thought as being ever-so-slightly favorable to Mr. Obama, since he leads in the race and since Mr. Romney now has only 45 days to make up the deficit. This will be especially true over the course of the next week or so, during which time the penalty that the model has been applying to Mr. Obama’s polls because of the potential after effects of the Democratic convention will phase out.