Polling Update

Andrew Sullivan —  Sep 26 2012 @ 2:58pm

A close look at Obama's job approval numbers:

Nate Silver tries to imagine a Romney victory without Ohio, where Romney is losing badly:

[O]ne sign that Mr. Romney’s team is preparing a "Plan B" to win the election without Ohio would be if they begin to place more emphasis on Iowa and Nevada. They would then have to hope that a shift in the national environment would carry states like Virginia and Florida back into their column. It isn’t a great plan. But when you’re the Republican candidate and are down outside the margin of error in Ohio with six weeks to go, you don’t have any great plans.

Meanwhile, Harry Enten reviews Gallup's forecasting record:

Both Gallup and Rasmussen continue to show a close race that most other pollsters don't see. That doesn't mean they should be ignored; they should be examined as part of a larger pool of polls that indicate a clear Obama lead. Gallup was a pioneer in the polling industry, but first doesn't equal best. Gallup may have the right ingredients, yet the sauce is just a little off. There's no reason to think they are right this time around while everyone else is wrong.