Polls Are Now Part Of The Liberal Conspiracy, Ctd

Tomasky asks Republicans to face reality:

[W]hile [Dick Morris] is correct that the polls are showing strong Democratic advantages, they’re doing so because that’s how people are identifying themselves to pollsters. In fact, Stan Greenberg noted last Friday, Republicans lost five points in voter identification in a month. This is not bad poll sampling. It’s reality. And while it’s true that today’s numbers might overstate what will be the case on Nov. 6, the way things are going, they just might be understating them.

Nate Cohn also pushes back against the poll skeptics:

We don’t need pollsters to tell us that Obama would lose if the electorate looks like 2010, nor do we need them to tell us that Obama would win if the electorate looked like 2008. What we need—and what we have—are pollsters with methods that allow us to get a decent grasp on what's going to happen on Election Day. Pollsters are not sooth-sayers who correctly guess the composition of the electorate every four years; they take demographically representative samples of adults and let the sample speak for itself. That’s how polls using the same methodology managed to show Bush winning in 2004, Obama winning big in 2008, and a GOP takeover in 2010. It’s how Ann Selzer managed to show Obama winning the Iowa Caucus’ in 2008, even though there wasn’t any comparable Caucus to mirror as a “turnout model.” None was necessary.

Douglas Schoen and Jessica Tarlov weigh in:

[W]hile the mainstream polls may be slightly skewed, they still hold the key to the election. And the gaps they are showing are increasing. According to a new Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS poll, Obama holds a 10-point lead in Ohio, a 9-point lead in Florida, and a 12-point lead in Pennsylvania. With numbers like these, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Obama is ahead. How far ahead may not be clear—but he is definitely winning.

Even though he calls poll denialists "totally crazy," Chait is somewhat sympathetic:

[W]hat is surely true is that individual polls do over-sample Democrats. That’s just how statistical margin of error works — some polls will err in one direction, others in another direction. It’s pretty crazy for poll denialists to assume all the non-Rasmussen polls have a Democratic bias, but some of them probably do. The recent Quinnipiac poll showing Obama up by nine points in Florida and ten points in Ohio stands apart from a host of polls showing a tighter race, and it’s probably wrong.

Earlier Dish on the poll skeptics here, here, and here.