Reality Check

Oct 1 2012 @ 4:58pm

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This is a graph with heightened sensitivity that shows a small uptick for Romney over the weekend. I've removed Rasmussen. The WaPo found a tight national race – around 2 percent – while the average is around 4. But in the swing states, the margin is apparently greater. Nate Silver's model now gives Romney a 1.9 percent chance of winning if the election were held today. Here's Intrade's current betting on Romney:

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