Reality Check

Screen shot 2012-10-01 at 12.22.49 PM

This is a graph with heightened sensitivity that shows a small uptick for Romney over the weekend. I've removed Rasmussen. The WaPo found a tight national race – around 2 percent – while the average is around 4. But in the swing states, the margin is apparently greater. Nate Silver's model now gives Romney a 1.9 percent chance of winning if the election were held today. Here's Intrade's current betting on Romney:

Screen shot 2012-10-01 at 12.30.40 PM