Ron Brownstein goes through the polling data and discovers a key reason Obama is performing well in swing states, actually the key reason. It began with the contraception debate when the GOP came off as caring more about the Vatican than struggling working class women for whom birth control really is a medical necessity that they appreciate being insured. It continued through the Akin mess and the 47 percent moment. It’s hard to see how this mega-rich Wall Streeter can relate to struggling women in this economy. And the Obama ads in the swing states have focused on this demographic relentlessly:
Among [working-class white] women, the swing-state-level polls show Obama drawing 46 percent in Michigan, 48 percent in Florida, 49 percent in Nevada, 50 percent in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, 51 percent in Pennsylvania, and 52 percent in Ohio and Iowa. Obama still lags badly among them only in North Carolina and Virginia, where many blue-collar whites are also evangelical Christians, and to a lesser extent Colorado …
Both campaigns agree the Democratic ads have damaged Romney much more with blue-collar women than blue-collar men. But both sides also agree that these women are the least stable component of Obama’s emerging coalition. “I still say the noncollege white women are the moving piece of the electorate,” Garin said. “But Romney is an imperfect vessel for them to say the least.”
Er, yes. But he aims to please. And he’ll try again tomorrow night.