Pre-Debate Reality Check: 49 – 45

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I've heightened sensitivity again to look for small recent shifts. Romney is up a point from his nadir, but the Obama "bounce" looks suspended in mid-air, with a recent gentle lift. Which means that Romney has to break through tomorrow night in such a big way that all this can be scrambled again. So I'll be live-blogging again, and the Dish team assembling the most comprehensive, edited reactions from the rest of the blogosphere, twitterverse and, of course, you.

Romney, by the way, has had a bounce back on Intrade, up from around 21 percent chance to 26 percent. Nate Silver's now-cast has Romney with a 2.2 percent chance; and his forecast for November gives him a 14 percent chance.

I didn't expect it to break this way – but it has, because of the arguments of both sides. Campaigns matter. The candidate matters. And the moment matters. It's an alchemy democracy; and it still holds the potential for surprise.