Who Is The Favorite?

Andrew Sullivan —  Oct 23 2012 @ 1:57pm

Drew Linzer still thinks it's Obama:

The reality in the states – regardless of how close the national polls may make the election seem – is that Obama is in the lead. At the Huffington Post, Simon Jackman notes “Obama’s Electoral College count lies almost entirely to the right of 270.” Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium recently put the election odds “at about nine to one for Obama.” The DeSart and Holbrook election forecast, which also looks at the current polls, places Obama’s re-election probability at over 85%. Romney would need to move opinion by another 1%-2% to win – but voter preferences have been very stable for the past two weeks. And if 1%-2% doesn’t seem like much, consider that Romney’s huge surge following the first debate was 2%, at most.

Nate Cohn sizes up the race:

If the polls are right and Obama holds the advantage in the critical battleground states into the final stretch, then a modest victory for the president was helpful to his chances, even if it doesn’t move the polls in his direction. Romney only has two weeks left  to move the needle two points in Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, or Wisconsin and any other tilt-Obama state, and relitigating the facts and memes from last night’s debate are assured to take up at least a couple of critical days. If Romney's deficit in Ohio is larger than one or two points, then that's a real lost opportunity. Of course, if the Romney campaign believes they have already brought the race back to a dead-heat in Ohio, losing three days worth of lost comeback isn’t terrible—so long as the president doesn’t outright make gains as a result of the debate. 

Nate Silver believes that Ohio has a fifty percent chance of deciding the election:

Unlikely does not equal impossible, but Ohio is central enough in the electoral math that it now seems to matter as much as the other 49 states put together. I am not sure whether I should be congratulating you or consoling you if you happen to be reading this in Toledo.