Did The Hurricane Sink Romney?

Nov 5 2012 @ 6:23pm

Dashiell Bennett examines the GOP spin:

The early line coming from some Republicans is that Hurricane Sandy really put the brakes on Mitt Romney's campaign, just at the moment he was staging a powerful comeback. Former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour gave that idea its own forward push on the Sunday morning talk shows, explicitly saying that "The hurricane is what broke Romney's momentum."

John Cassidy weighs that reading:

If Obama does win tomorrow … it will be too much to say that Sandy was responsible. In all likelihood, he would have won anyway. Except for a few days after the Denver debate, his grip on the electoral college has never been seriously threatened.

Silver's related argument:

[W]hile the storm and the response to it may account for some of Mr. Obama’s gains, it assuredly does not reflect the whole of the story. Mr. Obama had already been rebounding in the polls, slowly but steadily, from his lows in early October — in contrast to a common narrative in the news media that contended, without much evidence, that Mr. Romney still had the momentum in the race.